The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Vegas fight night stacked with up-and-coming talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 99 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Despaigne & Under 1½ Rounds (-180)
- Almabayev ML (-188)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Austin Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne
UFC Vegas 99 Heavyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex
Austin Lane
They say transitioning from one sport to another is no easy feat, and this much is true for former footballer Austin Lane. After building confidence in his finishing ability on the regional scene behind 12 wins and 11 knockouts, the Florida native received a rude welcome under the UFC banner, where he’s since been stopped by KO/TKO in all three of his appearances.
- Lane Pro Record: 12-5
- Lane KO/TKO Wins: 11
- Lane Submission Wins: 1
Robelis Despaigne
I think you and I both know what the UFC is doing here… Robellis Despaigne was being tipped as the next “big thing” at heavyweight, and with an unruly level of punching power, there was a case to be made. Unfortunately, after collecting five straight round-one knockouts to begin his career, Waldo Cortes-Acosta fraud-checked his grappling last time out. As a result, it would seem the UFC is feeding him a chinny opponent to get back on track.
- Despaigne Pro Record: 5-1
- Despaigne KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Despaigne Submission Wins: 0
Lane vs. Despaigne: Fight Tape Analysis
Here’s the thing… With his football background and clear wrestling abilities, Lane can emulate Costa’s game plan by taking Despaigne to the ground. The problem, however, is that he doesn’t have the cardio or ground abilities to prevent the behemoth of a man from returning to his feet.
Cortes was patient on the ground and had no issues maintaining position over Despaigne. Not to mention, he has the tidy boxing skills to prevent the knockout as each round began. Lane doesn’t have these attributes, and he’s too wild on the ground to hold position, similar to his striking style, where openings will be there for the taking.
Despaigne will forever struggle against formidable wrestlers, but fortunately for him, there aren’t many all-American or Dagestani grapplers at heavyweight. We know he will unleash a fury of fight-ending strikes from the opening bell and likely leave us questioning when it will end instead of if it will end.
UFC Vegas 99 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks unsurprisingly has placed a big juicy moneyline on Despaigne. As a result, we need to move a few things around to garner some decent profit on the monstrous knockout artist.
Based on past fights, I’d give Lane one round to get the job done, but the finishes he’s found in the past have never been against such an athletic specimen like Despaigne. The eventual knockout for the favorite will arise. With an opponent presenting such an untrustworthy chin and cardio, we can pair the moneyline and the under 1½ rounds for some respectable betting value.
Despaigne & Under 1½ Rounds: Supporting UFC Vegas 99 Facts
- All 5 of Despaigne’s career wins came by round 1 knockout
- Lane has 5 knockout losses on his pro record, 4 of which came in round 1
- Lane has lost all of his UFC bouts in round 1
UFC Pick: Despaigne & Under 1½ Rounds (-180) [1.8u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Mattheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev
UFC Vegas 99 Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at the UFC Apex
Mattheus Nicolau
Life competing amongst the elite of the UFC flyweight division hasn’t been plain sailing for Mateus Nicolau. He’s riding the first two-fight losing streak of his pro career since breaking into the top 15, although we must stress that losses to Alex Perez and Brandon Royval bear little shame.
Despite the rocky results of late, don’t let this losing streak fool you. Nicolau has delivered some technically perfect performances under the UFC banner, and prior to his recent losses, the Brazilian was riding a six-fight win streak.
- Nicolau Pro Record: 19-4-1
- Nicolau KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Nicolau Submission Wins: 5
Asu Almabayev
On the topic of winning streaks, Kazakh wrestling savant Asu Almabayev boasts a 16-fight win streak he’s collected over the previous seven years. His regional scene dominance left no doubt in the minds of UFC matchmakers, and no Dana White’s Contender Series, prove yourself fight, was necessary.
Naturally, there was speculation whether Asu could maintain his dominance in the top-tier MMA promotion. Still, after three fights since his debut last year, he’s left no doubts and walked through the opposition without much resistance.
- Almabayev Pro Record: 20-2-0
- Almabayev KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Almabayev Submission Wins: 9
Nicolau vs. Almabayev: Fight Tape Analysis
Technically speaking, Nicolau has lost focus on what initially brought him to the dance… Yes, he can strike with the best of em’, but his grappling and jiu-jitsu are elite, and it’s something he should consider when faced with such a formidable wrestling savage this Saturday.
That said, in a striking battle, Nicolau will have the advantage. He is a longer and more gifted kickboxer, and his output should trump his opponent’s. This, however, sounds great in theory, but in practice, Almabayev isn’t going to give him room to breathe!
Good luck fighting fight tape on Almabayev’s past opponents who have avoided his grappling prowess. He deploys a wrestling offensive that drowns the opposition, and with excellent cardio to match, his pace and pressure regularly become too much for his foes to handle.
UFC Vegas 99 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Almabayev the betting favorite, but respect is being given to Nicolau as the line isn’t as big as most 16-fight win streaks would present.
I do have reservations about Almabayev’s chance of success if he cannot find the takedown, but let’s be honest; he probably will! Flyweight competitors are incredibly difficult to take down and keep grounded, but if anyone can do it… Asu can!
There’s no denying Nicolau is the better striker of the two, but I struggle to envision him having enough time on the feet to convince the judges he’s a deserving winner.
Almabayev ML: Supporting UFC VEGAS 99 Facts
- Almabayev is riding a 16-fight win streak dating back to 2017
- Almabayev has won all 3 of his UFC bouts to date
- Nicolau has lost his two most recent UFC bouts
UFC Pick: Almabayev ML (-188) [1.88u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.