At the end of September, this SEC matchup might have rivaled last week’s Ohio State vs. Oregon affair in terms of interest if Alabama and Tennessee were undefeated. As we know, both teams have lost their way in picking up their initial loss of the season and continued not to play well.
Though each is still considered playoff contender for the 12-team field at the top-rated sportsbooks, the loser could be in real trouble, depending on how the rest of the season plays out across the country. This adds to the angst for both clubs and their loyal fans.
It is nice to see the SEC try and bring back this storied rivalry to its rightful place, with a name not everyone knows or understands. This rivalry is known as “The Third Saturday in October” and it will be played on that day.
NCAAF Pick
- Alabama -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Neyland Stadium
Alabama Defense Nowhere Near Usual Standards
When Alabama (5-1, 3-3 ATS) knocked off Georgia 41-34 to take over the #1 spot in the polls, few gave it a thought the Crimson Tide defense did not look up to its typical standards, after blowing a 28-0 lead. It was assumed that the Bulldogs’ pride and determination were what propelled them back into the contest.
However, after allowing 40 points to Vanderbilt in a stunning loss and not burying South Carolina in Tuscaloosa, hanging on to win 27-25, it’s evident this is not the Crimson Tide defense we are used to seeing.
Bama is #55 in total defense permitting 342 yards a game. Normally a Top 10 or Top 15 run defense, Alabama is in the mid-50s in rushing yards per attempt and yards allowed. Since Nick Saban’s third season, stopping the run was a huge priority. This season, opponents are unafraid to run at the Tide which helps them in the passing game, and allows them to create balance against Alabama. To the observant eye, the discipline in assignments is not the same as the linemen and linebackers lack in lane integrity.
On offense, coach Kalen DeBoer wants less on the plate of QB Jalen Milroe, and have the running backs and offensive line take more of the responsibility for rushing successfully, which can help Milroe hit more underneath passes.
Tennessee Offense Struggling Against Better Competition
After averaging 63.6 PPG in their first three outings, it seemed like coach Josh Heupel had lighting and thunder back in the Tennessee speed offense. The tempo was fast, the execution was peerless and freshman Nico Iamaleava had a tremendous grasp of all the concepts. Sure, the opposing teams were not from the upper crust, but when you are averaging over 60 PPG, something is working.
In the three games since, all facing SEC competitors, the Vols offense has slowed to a crawl at just past 20 PPG. What changed? After posting over 1,000 yards in a trio of skirmishes, the run offense has averaged 156 yards a contest since. It’s not like Heupel has soured on the run, averaging better than 43 attempts per game, but only posting 3.5 yards a carry.
This places the entire offense onto Iamaleava to throw and he had a variety of struggles at 173 YPG passing. Teams are stacking the line of scrimmage, daring Iamaleava to pass, while taking away the Tennessee run offense. This has shaken his confidence, he’s now staring down too many receivers and not letting passes go, not trusting what he sees.
Tennessee’s (5-1, 4-2 ATS) defensive numbers are somewhat overrated from the first three games, giving up twice as many yards against conference foes. Nonetheless, the Volunteers have only conceded 17 PPG in the SEC.
Who Is the Right Side for the Crimson Tide vs. Volunteers?
This is a great matchup from a strategy perspective. Will Tennessee be able to fix its offensive problems against a seemingly vulnerable Alabama defense and have success running to set up the pass? Or will the Crimson Tide crowd the line of scrimmage and force the Vols into turnovers?
While that aspect of the game is a true weakness for each club, the Alabama offense taking on the Tennessee stop troops is equally fascinating. Can Heupel’s defense be stout against the run and make Milroe throw accurately on underneath routes, which is not his strength? Or, will the Tide be able to attack the perimeter with the run, which forces safety help and Milroe can bomb away as an accurate deep ball thrower?
The thinking here is that it’s easier to correct defensive assignments for Bama than it is to repair a disheveled Vols offense. With that, next it comes to making big plays and the Crimson Tide appears better prepared to do than Tennessee.
Two aspects figure to matter, Alabama is 5-0 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more yards a carry and 8-0 ATS facing offensive teams averaging 6.25 or more yards a play. The Tide rolls.
NCAAF Pick: Alabama -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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