The NLCS begins tonight between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers were always expected to be in this position after spending $1 billion on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
However, the Mets weren’t expected to be here. While the Mets have the highest payroll in baseball, many of the players they’re paying are playing for different teams.
Despite what the payroll might say, the Mets are still an underdog story. After all, the Mets were 11 games below .500 early in the season and then played insane baseball in the second half to earn an opportunity in the playoffs.
The pitching staff has been supreme, and the lineup has been clutch. But can the Mets get by one of the most lethal teams in recent MLB history?
At least in Game 1 of this series, the AI Model doesn’t think so. Our computers have the Dodgers earning a 5.2-3.7 win over the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS. With the Dodgers currently at -160 on the moneyline at Caesars, that’s one of two plays you’ll want to consider. The Model also has the Dodgers and Mets combining for 8.9 runs. Therefore, the Over 8 at Caesars is another play you’ll want to consider per our Model.
Picks Summary
- Dodgers ML (-160)
- Over 8 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, October 13, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
Kodei Senga Will Get The Start
The Mets will roll with Kodei Senga tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has only thrown against 28 batters throughout the entire season. Senga was injured twice this season, so it’s fantastic he’s even throwing at this stage.
In his first playoff game, he served up a home run to Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies but settled in nicely afterward. Don’t expect Senga to pitch deep into this game. Expect Senga to go two or three innings before his day is over.
When Senga’s night is finished, expect David Peterson, the former left-handed starter to pitch for the Mets out of the bullpen. New York hopes they’ll be at least able to get six innings from Senga and Peterson before going to the bullpen.
Ultimately, the Dodgers have hit a .200 ISO and wOBA of .364 with only 16.7% of strikeouts against righties over the last month. On the other hand, this same lineup has hit a .276 ISO and wOBA of .361 against lefties in the previous 30 days.
However, against lefties, the Dodgers have struck out more and typically don’t earn nearly as many walks. Senga is a righty, and Peterson is a lefty.
There Are Also Ways To Get To Jack Flaherty
The Los Angeles Dodgers will send out Jack Flaherty. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has struggled against righties and lefties over the last 30 days.
His first outing against the Padres in the NLDS could have been more desirable. However, the Mets have only hit a .188 ISO and wOBA of .325 against righties in the last 30 days. New York has also struggled to make contact against starting pitchers and has waited until the bullpen to make some offensive noise.
The Mets have a handful of powerful bats and a bunch of clutch hitters. Those guys, like Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos, and Francisco Lindor, will likely come through with base hits and runs. But it also isn’t likely enough against the Dodgers, who have a much more powerful lineup that has hit more consistently this year.
MLB Computer Pick
The Dodgers will have a home game and likely face a lefty for three innings straight. Los Angeles destroys lefties. It’s unlikely Peterson comes in from the bullpen and just mows hitters down.
It’s more likely that the Dodgers will take the early lead, give up a couple of runs late, but still hold on to win the game outright.
Therefore, let’s back the Dodgers at -160 MLB odds and take the Over 8 (-110) in this game. According to our AI model, the Dodgers will win Game 1 of the NLCS.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-160) at Caesars Sportsbook
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.