The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to our screens, as the promotions Apex home in Las Vegas will play host to this weekend’s octagon festivities.
Edmen Shahbazyan, Gerald Meerschaert, Angela Hill, and Tabatha Ricci will compete in a pair of main card matchups, and I’ve found some noteworthy betting value up for grabs.
With that said, let’s dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas 96 main card best bets, analysis, and predictions, with the best UFC odds from top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Hill by Decision (+130)
- Shahbazyan-Meerschaert Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Angela “Overkill” Hill vs. Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci
UFC Vegas 96 Women’s Strawweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, August 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Angela Hill
Behind 25 UFC appearances and a seven-year tenure for the promotion, Angela is an O.G. of the women’s strawweight division and currently sits as a gatekeeper for bidding prospects hoping to break into the division’s top 10 rankings.
Hill can sometimes provide inconsistency and frustration by failing to convince the judges on their scorecards, but for the first time since 2020, she enters a fight night riding a two-fight win streak, and momentum could finally be siding with the 39-year-old veteran.
- Hill Pro MMA Record: 17-3-0
- Hill KOs: 5
- Hill Submissions: 1
Tabatha Ricci
Standing 5’1” tall, Brazil’s Tabatha Ricci isn’t the most imposing specimen in the strawweight division. However, don’t allow her size to fool you; she’s triumphed in five of her seven UFC bouts to date, and following a debut loss to the formidable Manan Fiorot, she rapidly established herself as a serious 115lb contender with a four-fight win streak.
- Ricci Pro MMA Record: 10-2-0
- Ricci KOs: 1
- Ricci Submissions: 3
Hill vs. Ricci: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s no secret that Hill prefers to kickbox. Many will use her age as a discrepancy, but her two most recent wins were against significantly younger competition, which didn’t affect the outcome. So, a striking gameplan is likely expected this weekend, and let’s hope she utilizes her footwork to avoid giving her opponent a similar striking tally as she’s done so much in the past.
While Ricci has a respectable kickboxing game and isn’t scared to stand and bang, her strength in the clinch and ability to utilize wrestling have been her standout paths to victory in the UFC thus far.
Size is always a downside for Ricci, but much like Hill’s age, she works with it, and what she lacks in height and reach is certainly made up for in physically imposing strength.
UFC Vegas 96 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The nickname “Baby Shark” says it all. Ricci is small but fierce, and we should expect her to pursue a grappling game plan this weekend. However, Hill’s size and experience could be the x-factor here.
Ricci was lucky to get a split decision over Tecia Torres last time in a fight where she was out-struck across 15 minutes by almost 30 significant strikes. Yes, Ricci landed the takedowns, but she didn’t do much with them, and I rate Hill’s ground game higher than Tecia. We know the judges don’t give much respect to low-output grapplers anymore, leading me to believe it’s Hill’s fight to lose.
Should Hill be able to keep this fight standing, which I believe she can do, I anticipate she’ll take the first two rounds effortlessly due to her higher striking numbers because Ricci doesn’t throw enough in standing exchanges.
UFC Pick: Hill by Decision (+130) [1u returns 1.3u profit] at Bet365
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
UFC Vegas 96 Middleweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, August 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Edmen Shahbazyan
Six years as a UFC roster member, and Edmen Shahbazyan is still just 26 years old. He’s had a rocky tenure thus far, with a 6-4 promotional record, but the experience he’s garnered at such a young age is irreplaceable, and when this kid’s on, he’s on, with five of his six UFC wins coming by KO/TKO or submission.
- Shahbazyan Pro MMA Record: 13-4-0
- Shahbazyan KOs: 11
- Shahbazyan Submissions: 1
Gerald Meerschaert
Aged 36 with 20 UFC bouts, Gerald Meerschaert is a company veteran with a reputation as one of the most dangerous submission artists in the business. Since his pro-MMA debut in 2007, “GM3” has forced 28 men to tapout, 10 of which he achieved under the UFC banner over the last eight years.
- Meerschaert Pro MMA Record: 36-17-0
- Meerschaert KOs: 6
- Meerschaert Submissions: 28
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert: Fight Tape Analysis
Durability and true athleticism have plagued Gerald Meerschaert and prevented him from being a middleweight contender, but this hasn’t stopped him from leaving it all in the octagon each and every time he competes. Jiu-jitsu and grounded situations present a submission record that speaks for itself, and win or lose, 16 of his 20 UFC bouts to date have ended inside the distance.
In contrast, Shahbazyan has athletic gifts such as strength and power, and his precise and sometimes domineering boxing offensive has helped him prove himself a fearsome striker. At times, the youthful middleweight has also displayed a respectable wrestling game; it’s just a shame that durability has let him down on many occasions.
UFC Vegas 96 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Speed kills, and that’s the glaring complication I envision Meerschaert having to deal with this weekend. That said, as we’ve seen repeatedly, he’s always live for a sneaky submission, and there is a scenario where Shahbazyan taps for the first time in his career.
We must factor in Shahbazyan’s age and evolutional potential from fight to fight. Despite a torrid run between 2020 and 2023, he collected his fourth-round one-stoppage win for the UFC earlier this year, as a slow and plodding ‘GM3’ that’s suffered four knockout losses could receive the same fate.
Instead of hitting the moneyline in this bout, and while I believe Shahbazyan is the likely winner, one factor we can rely on is a short and sweet outing for either fighter. With a long list of round one/two wins and losses, banking on this fight to end before the midway point of the second isn’t a bad wagering position to be in.
UFC Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-125) [1.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.