Since it’s Friday, there are many new matchups to get excited about as many teams begin their three-game series over the weekend tonight. We asked the AI Model for some help with our MLB picks tonight, and it gave us three picks that it loves. Here’s one of the three suggested plays that you should consider at top-rated sportsbooks.
MLB Pick
- Over 8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Chase Field
The AI Model believes the Diamondbacks and Phillies will combine for 8.5 runs. That gives us confidence that the Over 8.5 has a legitimate chance to hit. Even with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound, there’s value. We’ll talk about it below.
Fade Zack Wheeler!
You won’t hear this from me all the time. However, I’m ready to fade Zack Wheeler tonight.
After all, the right-handed ace has allowed a .256 ISO and wOBA of .317 to his last 49 lefties. He’s also given up 44.8% of fly balls and has induced just 27.6% of ground balls against lefties over the last month.
Meanwhile, the Arizona lefties in the projected lineup have hit a .314 ISO and wOBA of .404 with only 16.9% of strikeouts, The Diamondbacks should add runs against Wheeler tonight.
Lefty Success Is Coming
Ryne Nelson has held his last 122 batters to a .127 ISO and wOBA of .282. He’s been really good. However, the magic will eventually end.
Against lefties, he’s given up 35.9% of line drives and 33.3% of fly balls while inducing only 25.6% of ground balls. If that continues, Nelson will eventually falter and give up many runs.
He won’t have a good time facing power sluggers Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh, who all bat from the left side.
The Pick
Take the Over 8.5 in this game. We’ll get enough runs.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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