The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to pay-per-view this weekend, and with two championship fights lined up, British fighters will be out in force to make a statement in Manchester, England.
Tom Aspinall, Curtis Blaydes, Arnold Allen, and Giga Chikadze are involved in two high-profile bouts on the main card, and I’ve noticed some intriguing betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into my favorite UFC 304 main card analysis and predictions.
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Picks Summary
- Aspinall/Blaydes Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)
- Arnold Allen Win & Over 1.5 Rounds (-140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
UFC 304 Interim Heavyweight Championship Bout
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Co-Op Live
Tom Aspinall
Unfortunately, he’s out here defending the interim heavyweight strap because the lineal champ, Jon Jones, continues to duck his worst nightmare. Tommy Aspinall, one of the most well-rounded and skilled heavyweight competitors in the last two decades, defends his championship this weekend, and you better believe the English crowd will roar for their native fighting hero.
Aspinall’s only UFC loss (8-1 UFC record) to date arrived via injury, but with the same opponent standing across the octagon on that dreadful night now scheduled to face him at UFC 304, not only can Aspinall right his record, he’ll be looking to do it emphatically as he has done throughout his career (14 wins, all knockouts or submissions).
- Aspinall Pro MMA Record: 14-3-0
- Aspinall KOs: 10
- Aspinall Submissions: 4
Curtis Blaydes
Eight years and fourteen promotional bouts since his UFC debut, Curtis Blaydes is a veteran heavyweight with a long list of victims on his resume, including eight brutal KO/TKO wins. Despite his reign atop the heavyweight rankings, an opportunity at the gold has always sat just outside of his reach, but that all comes to an end as he looks to defy the betting odds and slay England’s king in three days’ time.
- Blaydes Pro MMA Record: 18-4-0
- Blaydes KOs: 13
- Blaydes Submissions: 0
Aspinall vs. Blaydes: Fight Tape Analysis
Don’t waste your time revisiting Aspinall against Blaydes from 2022 because it lasted 15 seconds, and the latter didn’t land a single punch. The leg injury ruined that night, but the small evidence we can take is that Aspinall dodged the incoming attacks and didn’t seem fazed by the wrestling-heavy man standing before him.
A lot has changed since then, including Aspinall’s rise to the top and dominant performances over fighters who’ve beaten Blaydes (Sergei Pavlovich). His boxing consistently evolves, and his distance management in footwork and kicks is also crisper and sharper than ever before.
Blaydes is no slouch, though. As a wrestling-style fighter, those who expect the takedown can often be met with some clean boxing offense on the feet. For this reason, Aspinall’s awareness and elusive style will need to be on point more than ever.
Aspinall is always the faster man, which gives him a huge advantage over the slower, plodding heavyweights. His abs show dedication outside the octagon, unlike the pop-belly we often see heavyweights walking around with.
UFC 304 Main Card Odds & Prediction
We have two well-rounded fighters who rarely see a third round in their respective bouts. However, Aspinall’s momentum is seemingly unstoppable right now, and I believe his impressive jiu-jitsu skills will prevent Blaydes from confidently unleashing a spammed wrestling style.
Expect a striking battle to ensue for however long it lasts. I side with Aspinall, but to cover our backs, banking on this fight ending within 7 minutes and 30 seconds feels like the safe bet and also holds some pretty decent value at top-rated sportsbooks, considering both men’s history.
All eight of Aspinall’s UFC victories ended in under 1 ½ rounds. Seven of Blaydes’ previous nine fights ended in round one or two, and both men hit like a truck. This is a heavyweight recipe for an early stoppage, and no matter who the victor is, they’re getting this one done early.
UFC Pick: Aspinall/Blaydes Under 1.5 Rounds (-160) [1.6u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadeze
UFC 304 Featherweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Co-Op Live
Arnold Allen
A ten-fight win streak alongside a position amongst the UFC’s finest featherweight competitors led Britain’s Arnold Allen to superstardom. The hype was real, but unfortunately, Max Holloway and Mosvar Evloev stopped the Englishman in his tracks.
Don’t, however, allow recency bias to fool you. Allen has just turned 30, and his evolution isn’t yet complete. Holloway and Evloev are two of the toughest 145-pounders on the planet, and prior to these defeats, the Brit was unstoppable.
- Allen Pro MMA Record: 19-3-0
- Allen KOs: 7
- Allen Submissions: 4
Giga Chikadeze
Georgia’s Giga Chikadze, similar to Allen, joined the UFC and went on a tear. His kickboxing expertise ran through the competition to an eight-fight win streak until a fellow striking specialist in Calvin Kattar put a dent in Giga’s unbeaten reign.
Now, with only two fights since 2022, Giga’s activity is a concern. He’ll always be a threat behind some of the most violent leg kicks in MMA, but aged 35, is he truly capable of competing with an athletic and formidable op like Allen?
- Giga Pro MMA Record: 15-3-0
- Gia KOs: 9
- Giga Submissions: 1
Allen vs. Chikadze: Fight Tape Analysis
Allen has been fighting the best that 145lbs has to offer. Giga, on the other hand, has fought a lot of mid-tiered or aging fighters. This is instantly a red flag, especially as he’s no spring chicken himself, and in his only high-level contest, he was molly whooped by Kattar.
The game plan for Allen here is simple: remove the space Giga needs to implement a striking contest at range, as it’s his only path to victory. We watched Allen, despite losing, go on a serious offensive in the pocket against Holloway, and the up-close battle is certainly going to favor him in this spot.
Speed, athleticism, strength, grappling, and jiu-jitsu are all siding with Allen here. Yes, he’ll be the less dangerous technical striker, but he does have power in those hands, and it also wouldn’t be a bad idea to initiate some grappling to drain the questionable cardio of Giga.
UFC 304 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Allen as a significant betting favorite, and it’s difficult to argue this stance.
Giga is unproven against the elite; his cardio tends to fade in later rounds, and while his kickboxing offense is something to behold, the 35-year-old enters this bout with almost every other variable factor going against him.
I will say that Giga’s chin is rock, and if Allen brings this fight to a close-quarters battle, we could see the clock drained. And that’s why backing Allen to win alongside over 1 ½ rounds is a valuable yet smart wager to place.
UFC Pick: Arnold Allen Win & Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) [1.4u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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