In this article, we will formulate a Home Run Derby Prediction on Monday, July 15th at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Let’s take a look at the participants and my MLB Home Run Derby Pick.
The format is similar to how it has been in the past, but the first round will not be a bracket. In the first round, all eight participants will compete against each other, with the top four advancing to the second round. Once the top four are finalized, they will be placed into a bracket based on their performance in the first round. Let’s take a look at who is competing.
MLB Home Run Derby Participants
Pete Alonso +340
Pete Alonso of the New York Mets has 19 home runs on the season, but he also has plenty of Home Run Derby experience. Alonso has been in the Derby on four different occasions and he has won twice, which is just one behind Ken Griffey Jr. for the lead. Alonso is a very solid choice, but he doesn’t offer us great odds.
Marcell Ozuna +400
Marcell Ozuna of the Atlanta Braves has 26 home runs so far this season, which ranks fourth in the MLB. Ozuna has had plenty of power in his career, but this will be the first time he is in the Home Run Derby. I don’t love his lack of experience, but he has proven himself as one of the top power hitters in the first half of the season.
Bobby Witt Jr. +475
Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals is one of the best young players in the MLB and he is very exciting to watch, but he only has 16 home runs this year. Witt Jr. has been one of the most electric players to watch over the last couple of seasons, but I don’t know how that is going to translate here. He could very well prove me wrong, but I don’t love taking him at these odds.
Adolis Garcia +500
Adolis Garcia of the Texas Rangers is the home town favorite in this competition, but he only has 17 home runs this season. Garcia has shown plenty of power over the last few seasons and the crowd will definitely be behind him. Garcia also takes thousands of swings in this ballpark, which should at least help him a little bit. The home town favorite is never a bad option and should provide plenty of entertainment.
Gunnar Henderson +500
Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles has 28 home runs so far this season, which is third in all of baseball. Henderson has had a fantastic start to this season and is one of the best hitters in the MLB. Henderson is very young and has no derby experience, but I think he has a very good chance of making some noise.
Teoscar Hernandez +950
Teoscar Hernandez of the Los Angeles Dodgers has 19 home runs on the season. Hernandez is obviously not the biggest name in the Dodgers lineup, but he has been huge for them this year and is second on the team in home runs. Hernandez is a long shot, but he does have pretty solid power numbers over the last few seasons.
Jose Ramirez +1300
Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Guardians has 23 home runs this year and he has had 23+ in four straight seasons and seven of his last eight. Ramirez is ranked as the second to last favorite, but he has been in the Derby once before and is a very consistent power hitter.
Alec Bohm +1600
Alec Bohm of the Philadelphia Phillies has 11 home runs this season and is the least likely to win, according to the oddsmakers. Bohm has only hit 20 home runs once in his career, but he will try to hang with the rest of the group, which should be fun to watch. Bohm may have the worst odds, but he hits plenty of extra base hits and maybe he will find a power surge here.
Home Run Derby Prediction
The Home Run Derby is always a fun event to watch during the All-Star break and even though we are missing some of the best players in the game, this surely a must watch event. Pete Alonso is the favorite in this competition and for good reason, as he has plenty of experience, but he also is just around +340 odds. I think it will be great to watch Henderson in this event, but his lack of experience scares me away. I really think Marcell Ozuna and Jose Ramirez have a legit chance to make a deep run in this thing, but I am going to go with Jose Ramirez at around +1300 odds. It is important to remember that literally anything can happen in this event, which is why I like to look for a long shot. I don’t think it would be a bad idea to also take Ozuna or Alonso and hope they face Ramirez in the Final Round, but if I am only going to take one, I will take Ramirez.