The Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder collide in a crucial NBA Game 5 at the Paycom Center on Wednesday night. Here’s a Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction.
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks will be eager to bounce back in this one after coming up painfully short to the Thunder in a heartbreaking 100-96 loss to the Thunder in Game 4 on Monday. PJ Washington was the spark for the Mavericks once again as he led the team with 21 points, Luka Doncic racked up a triple-double with 18 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists while Derrick Jones Jr chipped in with 17 points. As a team, the Mavericks shot just 40 percent from the field and 12 of 35 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 30 points in the first quarter to build an early 14-point lead, but they went cold and couldn’t match the Thunder in the second half where they got outscored by 57-42. Kyrie Irving had a night to forget as he scored just nine points with five turnovers in 41 minutes of action and the Mavs shot just 12 of 23 from the free throw line which came back to bite them in the clutch.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be full of confidence after they came back to beat the Mavericks in an unlikely road win in Game 4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 34 points, eight rebounds and five assists, Chet Holmgren added 18 points with nine rebounds and four blocks while Luguentz Dort chipped in with 17 points and eight rebounds. As a team, the Thunder shot just 38 percent from the field and seven of 27 from the 3-point line as they struggled to match the Mavericks in the first half and fell behind by 14 points, before they played great defense to limit the Mavericks to just 15 points in the third quarter which just left the door open long enough for the Thunder to steal the win with the Mavericks missing free throws down the stretch.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The Mavericks have won three of their last four playoff games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
- The Thunder have lost three of their last four Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites following a win.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 road games after losing as favorites.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites following a win.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for steals per game (2.0) this season.
- Chet Holmgren rank 3rd amongst qualified players for steals + blocks per game (3.0) this season.
Dallas Mavericks Player Facts
- Daniel Gafford ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (72.5%) this season.
- Kyrie Irving ranks 7th amongst qualified players for FT% (90.5%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Thunder rank T1st in the league for steals per game this season (8.5).
- The Thunder rank T1st in the league for blocks per game this season (6.6).
- The Mavericks rank 2nd in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (4.0).
- The Mavericks rank 2nd in the league for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (39.5).
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
The Mavericks will be disappointed with themselves, as they should’ve won after seemingly being in control for most of Game 4 on Monday. The Thunder just kept fighting, and now we are down to a three-game series, with the Thunder having home court advantage. The Thunder hold the momentum after escaping with the hard-fought victory, but the Mavericks still should’ve won despite Irving’s quiet night. You can make an argument for either side here, but I don’t see the Mavericks shooting that poorly from the free throw line again, and I am expecting a bounce-back performance from Irving in this spot.