The 2024 NFL Draft is barely more than a week away, which means it’s time to get serious about projecting the future destinations of the best players in college football.
According to Heisman Trophy voting, the best of the best this past season was LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. That doesn’t mean Daniels will go #1 overall to the Chicago Bears (USC’s Caleb Williams is a massive -10000 favorite for that honor), but there is a good chance that the Heisman winner is off the board second to the Washington Commanders.
Daniels is a -275 favorite to be the #2 selection, but he appears to have some competition in the form of fellow QBs Drake Maye of North Carolina and J.J. McCarthy of Michigan. Let’s break down the betting options for the #2 pick.
2024 NFL Draft #2 pick odds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
- Jayden Daniels (-275)
- Drake Maye (+215)
- J.J. McCarthy (+700)
- Caleb Williams (+5000)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (+9000)
- Bo Nix (+10000)
- Michael Penix Jr. (+10000)
- Malik Nabers (+10000)
- Joe Alt (+10000)
- Brock Bowers (+10000)
- Rome Odunze (+10000)
Jayden Daniels NFL Draft odds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
- Jayden Daniels #1 pick (+2000)
- Jayden Daniels #2 pick (-275)
- Jayden Daniels #3 pick (+250)
- Jayden Daniels #4 pick (+1500)
- Jayden Daniels #5 pick (+2500)
Jayden Daniels NFL Draft best bets
Jayden Daniels to be the #2 pick (-275)
LSU fans don’t have to like it, but Daniels simply isn’t going #1. The question is if he will fall to #3. I’m not seeing it. As good as Maye is, the upside is higher with Daniels. He is coming off an absurd final season at LSU during which he threw for 3,812 yards with 40 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. Daniels also rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 TDs. The talent level is — or at least should be — too good for Washington to pass up.
Parlay: 1) Caleb Williams, 2) Jayden Daniels, 3) Drake Maye (-140)
As mentioned in my Caleb Williams analysis, there is better value on a 3-pick parlay than there is on the projected top 2 selections from an individual standpoint (Williams and Daniels). Even at -275, there is decent value on Daniels — but not as good as piecing together a parlay. If Williams and Daniels go #1 and #2, respectively, that would leave Maye for the New England Patriots at #3. Although McCarthy has been shooting up draft boards in recent weeks, he isn’t at Maye’s level and the Pats really can’t afford another potential Mac Jones situation.