The UFC travels to CDMX this weekend as the scorching heat and high elevation of Mexico hosts 13 exciting MMA bouts, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a fight card stacked with Ciudad de Mexico talent.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Mexico City preliminary card.
Picks Summary
- Edgar Chairez Wins By KO/TKO or Submission (-225)
- Fares Ziam ML (-210)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda Da Silva
UFC Mexico Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, February 24, 2024 – 08:50 PM ET at Arena CDMX
Edgar Chairez
Mexico’s own Edgar Chairez currently sits with a 0-1 UFC record, but this number doesn’t tell the whole story. He actually fought Daniel Lacerda last September, made him tap within four minutes, and amended his debut loss to an ultra-talented Tatsuro Taira.
Unfortunately, the result was overturned due to a “premature stoppage,” but anybody with two eyes can see Lacerda tapped. Now, after a failed attempt at rescheduling this bout, Chairez can impress his home nation and seek the win he should already have on his record.
- Chairez Pro Record: 10-5-0
- Chairez KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Chairez Submission Wins: 6
Daniel Lacerda
Daniel Lacerda is wild and reckless, two factors that can always assist an up-and-coming MMA talent on the regional scene. However, arriving at the UFC has been a huge wake-up call, as the Brazilian has suffered four consecutive defeats, all of which ended by KO/TKO or submission. Not forgetting that he’d be 0-5 with five losses inside the distance if the Chairez result weren’t overturned.
- Lacerda Pro Record: 11-5-0
- Lacerda KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Lacerda Submission Wins: 6
Chairez vs. Lacerda: Fight Tape Analysis
The defining attribute, or lack thereof, surrounding Lacerda’s skillset would be his cardio. He doesn’t have enough in the tank to go beyond five minutes and does a great job of exhausting himself with a sporadic style.
Now, the UFC is putting him on a plane to Mexico City, a location renowned for its high elevation and challenging climate for athletes. I think the result will be obvious, and all Chairez needs to do is implement a similar game plan the last time he won or survive five minutes and watch his opponent wilt like a dying flower.
UFC Mexico City Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have Chairez as a significant betting favorite, but you may as well boost the numbers with a KO/TKO and submission prop because this fight isn’t going the distance.
Larceda has proven that he has 2-3 minutes to finish a fight before completely gassing, and with Mexico’s elevation, it could be even less. Chairez is no world-beater but doesn’t need it to overcome his weekend opposition.
Chairez by KO/TKO or Submission: Supporting UFC Mexico Facts
- Lacerda has lost all four of his UFC bouts
- Lacerda’s five pro career defeats were by KO/TKO or submission
- Lacerda has never fought beyond the second round
UFC Pick: Chairez by KO/TKO or Submission (-225) [2.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Claudio Puelles vs. Fares Ziam
UFC Mexico Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, February 24, 2024 – 08:25 PM ET at Arena CDMX
Claudio Puelles
Kneebar or bust is Claudio Puelles’ chance of victory rolled into three words. The Peruvian lightweight is damn good at leglocks, but this isn’t going to provide him with a prosperous career in the UFC, and without noteworthy advancements in other areas of the fight game, he’s a huge fade at the bookies moving forward.
- Puelles Pro Record: 12-3-0
- Puelles KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Puelles Submission Wins: 7
Fares Ziam
Early career losses placed a few question marks around the skillset of France’s Fares Ziam, but aged just 26 and under the tutelage of Henri Hooft, the Kill Cliff FC product has undoubtedly evolved since his most recent loss to Terrance McKinney.
- Ziam Pro Record: 14-4-0
- Ziam KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Ziam Submission Wins: 5
Puelles vs. Ziam: Fight Tape Analysis
Takedown defense is often an issue for fighters stemming from a kickboxing background, and as a Muay Thai striker, Ziam fell into this category. However, his evolution has been evident, and we watched him stuff several takedowns in his two most recent wins. This allows him to fight his fight and totally outclass the opposition via a kickboxing war.
In contrast, Puelles hasn’t changed; he hunts kneebars and looks to submit his opponents from the opening bell to the final seconds. Sure, he can wrestle, and the kneebars have been successful, but how long can this style survive amongst the elite? Well, ask Dan Hooker the same question.
UFC Mexico City Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing at our top sportsbooks has made Ziam a betting favorite because his path to victory is clear. The same could be said for Puelles, but as previously mentioned, the Frenchman is consistently evolving his grappling game.
With a significant size and striking advantage, alongside a newly found takedown defense, backing Ziam on the moneyline feels like the smart move this weekend versus an opponent that’s easy to plan for and has been absent since November 2022.
Ziam Moneyline: Supporting UFC Mexico City Facts
- Puelles has been sidelined since 2022
- Ziam stuffed 6 of 6 takedown attempts in his last fight
- Ziam is riding a two-fight win streak
UFC Pick: Fares Ziam ML (-210) [2.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.