The Super Bowl is set and we have a rematch of a few years ago between Kansas City and San Francisco. Here are points to think about from what we have seen in the postseason, particularly, the conference championship games.
Coaching Matters in Big Games
No matter the sport, when you get to the postseason, coaching plays such a big part. Each coaching staff can focus on a singular opponent and have no other distractions or look-ahead thoughts.
The Chiefs’ Andy Reid and his staff had superior game plans against Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore. In each instance, they had a game plan, especially in the first half where they could exploit a weakness that they had seen against their opponent and drive for early touchdowns.
K.C. defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo assembled game plans that take opposing offenses out of their comfort zone. In each instance, though the opponent figured out how to better move the ball in the second half, the opposing quarterback got panicky and made mistakes that helped the Chiefs win.
The 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan looked like he was going to be fitted for a dunce cap with his team down 24-7 to Detroit. Shanahan stuck with his game plan on offense and the offense started to click both running and passing. Some gifts from the Lions players and coach Dan Campbell did not hurt.
Spend time thinking about how each coach can configure a game plan versus the other team. Give a point spread value of what coach gives their team an edge in the Big Game.
Field Goal Kickers
With San Francisco just a one-point favorite 13 days before the Super Bowl, the kicking game could play a factor in the outcome.
The 49ers went with a rookie this season and Jake Moody has been solid all year, making 20 of 24 field goals through 16 contests. However, since their final game of the regular season, Moody is 3 of 6 on field goals, and given the enormity of the Super Bowl stage, this could matter.
Conversely, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is a rock-solid pro and was 33 of 35 in the regular season making three-pointers and is a perfect 7 of 7 in the postseason.
Understand How the Offensive and Defensive Lines Matchup
Besides coaching, the trenches are where the game is played. While the quarterbacks and skill position players win the awards if the offensive line cannot block or the defensive lines are so disruptive they stymie their foes’ offense, that can be the game.
Kansas City will have issues in run defense from game to game yet because they create so much pressure on passing downs with the likes of Chris Jones and company, their skillful secondary looks even better in coverage.
San Francisco has a talented front four that can also generate issues in the passing game. What the 49ers have to clean up is their defensive ends, Nick Bosa and Chase Young, taking bad angles on run plays to their outside shoulder, by not setting the edge to filter running backs in the linebackers.
Study this intently.
Work to Find Useful Information That Can Payoff for You
Whether it is at Oddstrader or on the internet at places like X (formally Twitter), research pertinent betting trends that can help you formulate a winner.
It was widely known Patrick Mahomes was 9-1-1 ATS going into the AFC title game as an underdog and that worked out rather well. Or that Detroit was 7-0 OVER if they did not have the lead in their previous game.
Not every nugget is gold, but if you can find these and sift through them, they can help you determine what is the right side from a historical perspective.
Live Betting Opportunity
Both Kansas City and Detroit scored touchdowns on their first drive of the conference championships. Each covered the spread and thus far, when that happened in the playoffs, the team to do that first is 6-1 ATS this postseason.
Though the numbers are not annually this strong, normally, that is a good indicator of who might win and especially cover the spread. Because you are likely to do live betting during the Super Bowl, this is an opportunity worth jumping on right away if it occurs.